Our Best Predictions for the Biggest Watch Event of 2024 (Plus the Rest of the Year)

Our best guesses at what the future holds for Rolex, Tudor, Patek and more.

rolex milgauss watch repelling iron filings

Published April 5, 2024

Updated April 5, 2024

Now is the time of year when we like to look into our crystal ball and make our best guesses at how the next year in watches is going to shape up. (To see how we did last year, head here). It’s entirely possible that none of our predictions come true. It’s also possible that all of them come true (if that happens, I’m buying a lottery ticket). But either way, it’s fun to play Nostradamus for a bit by applying what we learned about the industry in 2023 to the year ahead in 2024.

Speaking of last year, it was a pretty crazy one in the watch world. There were some major acquisitions, with Breitling picking up Universal Genève and Rolex buying Bucherer. There were several viral hit watches from suspects both expected (Tudor) and unexpected (Christopher Ward). And there were purple dials. So many purple dials.

But we’re now well into 2024, with the biggest annual week in the industry — the Watches & Wonders watch fair — taking place from April 9 — 15 in Geneva, Switzerland. I’ll be there seeing the luxury watch world’s newest and hottest offerings firsthand, but before heading to Europe, I want to share my predictions for what I’ll see there … along with some other broader guesses at where the watch industry is headed in 2024.

What We Could See at Watches & Wonders 2024

Rolex Predictions: A Coke GMT, White Explorer & New Milgauss?

Just as Rolex runs the luxury watch industry, The Crown runs Watches and Wonders. I mean this figuratively, as Rolex is just one of dozens of exhibiting brands at the fair, but it’s by far the most influential, and it’s the brand at the top of every visitor’s list. Rolex has historically been conservative with its offerings — a slight design tweak here, a new size there — but last year the brand was full of unexpected surprises like the wild “Puzzle Dial” Day-Date.

Rolex has just released its annual teaser ahead of the show, and as usual, it’s pretty cryptic. But I was still able to glean some information from it. The theme of Rolex’s releases this year is “When the Iconic Meets the Unexpected,” and the brand looks to be executing that by combining hallmarks associated with certain watches with different models.

For example, Rolex appears to be teasing an Oysterflex bracelet for the GMT-Master II, a President and/or Jubilee bracelet for the Sky-Dweller, a diamond-set bezel for the Sky-Dweller, a display caseback for the Day-Date, a guilloché dial for the 1908 and even a bi-metal dive watch in yellow gold and titanium. Now, these are just our best guesses at what the teaser shows and are not confirmed. For a more in-depth look at our teaser analysis, head here.

rolex rose gold bracelet — An Everose Gold GMT-Master II? A Sky-Dweller on a Jubilee? We’ll find out next week.

Of course, as is always the case, not every Rolex release will be featured in the teaser, and I have some guesses as to what else we could see from The Crown. Perhaps most likely is a black and red “Coke” bezel variant of the GMT-Master II. Rolex filed a patent for a black-and-red Cerachrom bezel in 2022, so it’s entirely possible the product has been developed in time for this year’s show. (I’m betting it’s in white gold and available on that aforementioned Oysterflex.)

Some other things I’d like to see from the brand that may or may not happen include the return of the Milgauss, which was discontinued at last year’s show and would be based on the new Air King; a titanium Sea-Dweller as a follow-up to last year’s titanium Yacht-Master; or even an Explorer I with a white “Polar” dial like the one seen on the Explorer II.

For a more in-depth look at the watches I’d like to see from Rolex this year, head here.

Tudor Predictions: More Small Sports Watches & a Reborn Montecarlo?

Tudor became a major trendsetter at last year’s show when it debuted the 37mm Black Bay 54 diver and kicked off an increased demand for smaller sports watches, and I suspect we’ll see more of the same from the brand this year. That could mean we’ll finally get a smaller Black Bay GMT, perhaps in 39mm (no, the Black Bay Pro doesn’t count), or even a midsize version of the standard Black Bay diver, which got an overhaul last year in its standard 41mm size.

Another Tudor event that happened last year that drew far less attention than the Black Bay 54 was the quiet discontinuation of the Heritage Chrono. Basically the first launch of modern Tudor back in 2010, the chronograph was inspired by the mid-century Tudor “Montecarlo,” which is among the most iconic motorsports watches ever made.

The time feels perfect for a new Montecarlo to debut at this year’s show. Tudor now has a manufacture chronograph movement, which it uses in the Black Bay Chrono, so there’s no need for major innovation there. And the brand just became an F1 sponsor for the first time earlier this year, acting as the official watch partner of the Visa Cash App RB. Right now, the drivers are wearing blue-dial Black Bay Ceramics, but wouldn’t a dedicated racing chronograph make a lot more sense?

Patek Philippe Predictions: A New Hyped Steel Sports Watch

In recent years, Patek has been acting like it hates its steel sports watches. The brand discontinued the 5711 Nautilus in 2022, arguably the most hyped watch in the world at the time, because it didn’t want to become associated with one watch. Other stainless steel sports models rose in popularity in the wake of the Nautilus’s death, like the Aquanaut Travel Time, only to see their own discontinuations.

Patek is still Patek, but it doesn’t currently have a mega-hyped steel sports model to compete with the likes of Rolex, Audemars Piguet or even Vacheron Constantin. Perhaps Patek likes it this way. Or perhaps, just maybe, the most prestigious watch brand is feeling just a teensy bit jealous that it’s not getting the headlines it was just a couple years ago.

I’m hoping the latter is the case, if for no other reason than because I want to see a cool new steel Nautilus or Aquanaut from Patek.

Other 2024 Watch Predictions

The Announcement of New Universal Genève Models

One thing I don’t expect to see in 2024 is any new watches from Universal Genève. I know we all got excited when it was announced at the end of 2023 that Breitling’s ownership had acquired the iconic brand with plans to bring it back to its former glory, but watches take years to develop, which means we’re not going to see any new Universal Genève models in 2024 unless Breitling had secretly been working on this deal for the past few years (unlikely).

But I definitely think we’ll be hearing from Breitling on what we can expect from the reborn version of Universal Genève, including some models that will make a return. UG has several icons gathering dust in its back catalog, most notably the Gerald Genta-designed Polerouter and many stellar references from its varied Compax line of chronographs, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Breitling confirms that one or more of these are in the works — the brand has already more or less confirmed that at least the Polerouter will return.

An Anniversary Moonwatch from Omega

Omega is poised for a big year after a relatively quiet 2023. The Summer Olympics will take place in France, which means Omega, as the Games’ official timekeeper, will be rolling out some special editions. 2024 could also bring news on the identity of the next James Bond, which could be accompanied by a commemorative Seamaster. And then there’s Omega’s greatest claim to fame: the Speedmaster and the moon landing.

2024 marks 55 years since the first humans set foot on the moon during 1969’s Apollo 11 mission, and as you’re no doubt aware, astronaut Buzz Aldrin did so with a Speedy on his wrist. And while 55 years may not seem like the most obvious year for an anniversary, I think the brand will definitely release some kind of special Moonwatch to mark the occasion rather than saving all their efforts for the 60th anniversary in 2029.

Why’s that? Well, Omega is never one to shy away from any excuse to pump out a special-edition Speedmaster; this is the brand that put out 45th and 50th-anniversary Silver Snoopy Speedmasters. This year has already seen the brand launch a new Dark Side of the Moon Speedy along with a white dial Speedmaster that’s currently the top contender for most-hyped watch of 2024. So don’t be surprised to see one more massive Speedy drop before the year is through.

Rolex Being Easier to Purchase

The most frustrating thing about Rolex over the past several years has been the difficulty in purchasing one. Stories abound about years-long waiting lists and ADs withholding popular sports models from prospective customers, rumors make the rounds that the brand is intentionally keeping production low (which is nonsense; the brand pumps out over a million watches a year) and skyrocketing prices on the secondhand market to the point where the idea of buying a Rolex at SRP is laughable. But there are signs that the tide is finally turning.

2023 saw several developments that should spell lower prices for Rolex watches in 2024. For one, the brand is expanding production, and while its main new factory won’t be up and running until 2029, a smaller temporary one will become active in 2024. Rolex also bought watch retail giant Bucherer near the end of 2023 and started its own pre-owned sales program earlier in the year, with both moves giving the brand more direct control over the market for its watches than ever before.

Finally, secondhand Rolex prices fell sharply throughout 2023, coming down from their insane pandemic-era highs and signaling the end of the Rolex bubble. So bust out that credit card; 2024 may finally be the year you lock down a Pepsi for a somewhat reasonable price.

The TAG HeueRenaissance Continuing

TAG Heuer has stopped playing around. For the past few years, the brand has been on an unspoken rehabilitation tour seemingly aimed at winning over enthusiasts who had long dismissed the brand as overpriced and underwhelming. TAG Heuer has steadily been upping the quality of its watches and movements while also drawing on classic designs from Heuer’s storied past. This all came to a head in 2023 with the phenomenal rollout of the new Carrera Chronograph “Glassbox,” which honored the 60th anniversary of Heuer’s most important model with the perfect blend of old-school style and new-school substance.

But TAG isn’t going to stop there. I expect to see more straight fire from the brand in 2024 as it looks to become even more of an appealing alternative to brands like Longines, Tudor and Breitling. The brand also has an ace up its sleeve in new CEO Julien Tornare, who came on board in January after transforming fellow LVMH brand Zenith into one of the industry’s hottest brands.

There are plenty of models in TAG’s catalog that would welcome a Carrera-style makeover. Could we see the non-limited return of some classic Autavia chronographs? A smaller, more wearable Monaco? A modernized version of the Link that takes it out of the ’90s and makes it a compelling competitor in the integrated bracelet luxury sports watch segment? The possibilities are nearly endless and very enticing.

A Hot Market for Carl F. Bucherer

Even for those who claim to hate the brand, there is no debating that Rolex runs the show when it comes to the Swiss watch industry. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest annual report on the state of the market, Rolex’s sales alone — not including subsidiary Tudor — account for 30.3% of the market share. That’s greater than the next five best-selling brands combined. (Cartier, Omega, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille, for those keeping score at home.)

I’ve already spoken about Rolex’s acquisition of Bucherer, but one aspect of that sale that’s flown under the radar is the fact that The Crown also picked up watchmaker Carl F. Bucherer in the process. Add that label to the other biggie under its umbrella, Tudor, and that effectively makes Rolex a three-brand portfolio conglomerate.

Now, Rolex has stated that CFB will retain its current management and will operate independently, but I don’t think that stipulation matters much. Eventually, the word will get out to more people that Rolex owns CFB, and the typical hype that follows everything Rolex does will inevitably come calling, driving up demand and prices for Carl F. Bucherer watches. And frankly, the brand deserves the attention.

CFB, which has a history dating back to 1888, is rarely talked about in American enthusiast circles and sells nearly half of its watches in Asia. But the brand’s catalog shows a ton of potential, as it’s filled with proprietary technology, complicated movements and potentially popular sports models, like a carbon fiber flyback chronograph that could keep IWC up at night and a sharp dive watch with a COSC movement and a 500m depth rating that Rolex can sic on the Seamasters and SeaQs of the world.

Christopher Ward Joining the Big Boys

Few brands have been on as much of a tear as Christopher Ward in the past few years. The brand reinvented itself following the departure of its namesake from the company in 2020, coming out with a new logo, increased quality (and prices) and an endless parade of hit watches. 2023 was especially impressive for the brand. It launched a new line of integrated bracelet sports watches in The Twelve that became one of the most buzzed-about watches of the year.

And it continued to draw plenty of attention and accolades for the Bel Canto, the sub-$4,000 chiming watch it introduced at the end of 2022, which won the GPHG “Petite Aiguille” award for the best watch priced between CHF 2,000 – 8,000, besting models from Tudor, Bulgari and others.

Some may think CW has peaked and can only go down from here, but I suspect it’s about to have its biggest year yet. 2024 marks the 20th anniversary of the brand, which was founded in 2004 as the world’s first online-only watch brand, as well as the 10th anniversary of its merger with Swiss manufacture Synergies Horlogères SA.

This occasion tells me that Christopher Ward is going to surprise people even more with the kinds of releases it will unleash on the market in 2024, to the point where we’re going to have to start asking ourselves why we’re still surprised by the brand’s watches. Christopher Ward has arrived as a legitimate Swiss-made luxury watch brand rather than an upstart micro, and 2024 will cement that status.

A New Direction for Audemars Piguet

a close up of a watch with spider man on the dial

If there were one brand watch enthusiasts loved to complain about in 2023, it was Audemars Piguet. A historically important brand in the industry and considered a member of haute horlogerie’s “Holy Trinity” alongside Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin, AP has been more than happy to cast aside tradition in recent years while producing pop culture-driven hype watches and seemingly chasing clout.

That direction was most evident last year when the brand released a Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar collab with rapper Travis Scott’s Cactus Jack clothing brand and a Marvel-signed Royal Oak Concept Tourbillon with a prominent Spider-Man on the dial. Both watches, particularly the Marvel one, were derided by many collectors. But change is afoot at AP.

To kick off 2024, the brand welcomed a new CEO for the first time in three decades, with Swiss-Italian national and cosmetics industry veteran Ilaria Resta taking over from exiting CEO François-Henry Bennahmias. But before you go blaming Bennahmias for any perceived problems at AP, you should know that he saved the brand rather than killed it. Bennahmias ran the company for 30 years, making it a household name (it ranks fourth in market share among Swiss watch brands) and transforming the Royal Oak from a 1970s relic into a global icon.

So Bennahmias’s exit does not necessarily mean no more pop-culture collabs. In fact, early into Resta’s tenure this year, the brand named John Mayer its “Creative Conduit” and released a Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar co-designed by the singer. But change at the top usually means changes down the line, so we shouldn’t expect the same AP moving forward (the Mayer collab certainly was in the works prior to the CEO change; these things take time). Whether that means more or fewer hype watches and controversial collabs, I can’t say, but I look forward to finding out.

Collabs Galore

2023 was all about collabs, and almost no brand was immune to the trend. From heavy hitters like the aforementioned Audemars Piguet to budget brands like Timex, watchmakers were constantly mixing it up with other companies on limited-edition models. But the craziest thing was just how many different types of collabs we saw.

There were pop culture collabs, celebrity collabs, retailer collabs, artist collabs (seconde/seconde was everywhere), product collabs (bourbon watch, anyone?), clothing brand collabs (Rowing Blazers went hard last year), collabs that involved a comical number of collaborators (four cooks in this kitchen) and even collabs between watch brands.

And while you might think people are sick of collabs by now, that doesn’t seem to be the case, as many of these collabs (though decidedly not all) were snatched up as soon as they went on sale. Collabs are just fun, for the most part. Brands seem to enjoy doing them as they allow them to work with new people and do things they wouldn’t normally do, and buyers like them because it lets them see a new side of a brand they like while also getting a chance to purchase something limited in nature. I expect we’ll see even more collabs in 2024, as this trend isn’t likely to die anytime soon.

Exotic Dials Everywhere

Another trend that began to pick up steam in 2023 that I expect to explode in 2024 is the trend toward using exotic materials for dials. Over the past handful of years, there’s been a massive shift toward using more color in dials, but watch brands are continuing to find new ways to stand out by incorporating unique and visually stunning materials into their dials.

In 2023, Oris released a ProPilot with a laser-treated dial that contains no pigment and constantly changes color in light. TAG Heuer made a dial out of a lab-grown diamond. Stone dials made a big comeback in pieces from Girard-Perregaux, Rolex, AP and others, while Rolex and AP — along with more affordable brands like Christopher Ward — also slapped starry aventurine dials on a few of their watches. I think we’ll see brands get even more experimental with their dials in 2024, making use of materials and treatments that no one has ever seen before.

Smaller Divers and Sports Watches

After two decades of oversized watches, the industry has finally, slowly begun to turn toward more classically sized watches in recent years. That trend got a shot in the arm in 2023, thanks mainly to Tudor, which released its 37mm Tudor Black Bay 54 dive watch at Watches and Wonders. Other brands also churned out sports watches and divers smaller than 40mm, like Longines with its 39mm Legend Diver and Spirit Zulu Time GMT and Tissot with the 36mm version of the PRX Powermatic 80. Even IWC shrunk its Big Pilot’s Watch (it’s still big at 43mm, but that’s a lot more wearable than 46mm).

In 2024, I expect (and hope) this trend will continue with the growing acceptance of smaller sports watches and dive watches. We’ve already seen one major development in this area in 2024 with Blancpain shrinking the Fifty Fathoms from 45mm to 42mm (next stop, 39mm?), but I’m hoping we finally see a return of the midsize Omega Seamaster 300m or maybe even a new 39mm Rolex Explorer II (can you imagine?). Small is in when it comes to divers and sports watches, and brands should take advantage of the public sentiment in 2024 — just think how much they’ll save on material costs!